Welcome to our latest episode. Today, we are thrilled to welcome Neal Bawa, the Mad Scientist of Multifamily, CEO, and Founder of Grocapitus. Neal is a technologist and data guru with a billion-dollar portfolio, renowned for his data-driven approach to commercial real estate investment. This episode is packed with valuable insights on current market trends, strategic investment approaches, and the intriguing concept of land squatting.
In this engaging discussion, Neal shares his journey from a successful tech career to becoming a leading figure in commercial real estate. He dives into the current state of the multifamily market, the impact of rising interest rates, and the opportunities presented by market corrections. Neal introduces the concept of land squatting, a unique strategy tailored for high-interest rate environments, and explains how it can provide a significant edge in today’s market.
Whether you’re an experienced investor or just starting out, this episode provides a wealth of knowledge on how to navigate the complexities of real estate investing in a fluctuating market. Tune in to the full episode to gain invaluable insights from Neal Bawa and elevate your investment strategies.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EPISODE
00:25 – Guest intro: Neal Bawa
01:01 – Neal’s background and journey into real estate
02:20 – Current state of the multifamily market and expected corrections
05:10 – The impact of high-interest rates on multifamily investments
08:00 – Predicting market bottoms and tops: Insights from Warren Buffett
10:30 – Long-term interest rate trends and their impact on real estate
14:10 – The concept of land squatting and its strategic advantages
19:12 – Opportunities in townhome developments and market demand
22:32 – The importance of mindset and historical market perspectives
If you found this episode substantial and want to dig deeper into real estate, or maybe you want to discover better investment opportunities, be sure to check out www.tempofunding.com.
CONNECTING WITH THE GUEST
Website: https://multifamilyu.com/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/neal-bawa/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/nealbawa/?hl=en
Twitter: https://twitter.com/nealbawa/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NealBawaMFU/
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@MultifamilyU
Full Transcript:
Intro: Welcome to the BigMikeFund Podcast, where you’ll learn about advanced wealth building strategies from real estate investing to creating massive ROI and secure retirement profits. So pour yourself a cup of coffee, grab a notepad, and lean in. Because Big Mike has got the mic, starting now.
Mike Zlotnik: Welcome to the BigMikeFund Podcast. I’m the Big Mike, Mike Zlotnik, and today it is my pleasure and a privilege to welcome Neal Bawa. Hi Neal.
Neal Bawa: Thanks for having me on the podcast, Mike.
Mike Zlotnik: Thank you kindly for coming on our podcast. Neal is known as the mad scientist of multifamily. He is a technologist who is universally known in the real estate circles.
He manages over a billion dollars at and he’s a data guru. So once again, welcome and tell us a little bit about Neal first, where you live, family, a couple of words on that topic, and then we’ll dive into what’s happening on a data front of multifamily.
Neal Bawa: Of course. So I’m a technologist, data science background, computer science degree, had a successful tech career.
And during that tech career for 14 years, I was running a company, grew it from 10 to 4, 400 employees. I live in Texas, so I had the big fat tech salary and I was paying 50 percent of my salary in taxes. And so really got into real estate for tax reasons for tax depreciation benefits. So from 2003 to 2013.
Build campuses for my company and also bought lots and lots and lots of single family homes when, you know, other people were nervous about them in 2008 onwards and from 2013 onwards, they have been working with investors. So about a thousand investors. We’ve taken about 300 billion of their money to buy and build about a billion dollars worth of assets, which now I think are probably worth only 700 million because there’s been a decline in value.
Mike Zlotnik: Yeah. I appreciate that point. That’s an early point that you bring. So you’re seeing 30 percent correction. If I understood that correctly.
Neal Bawa: Not quite. We’ve sold off a bunch of assets. So I think the, the, the correction that we are seeing in, in, in our assets is probably in closer to 20%, but I expect that number to go up.
I expect that the, the final number, the final correction from peak will probably be 25 percent or 30%. We’ll see, we’ll, we’ll see how long it takes for the fed to get the rates down because every month that the fed weight, the value of multifamily continues to fall. So, which is, which is a great opportunity, by the way.
Mike Zlotnik: Well, it’s a great opportunity, I guess, to buy fresh, right? But it’s, it’s more painful for the existing investors in these projects.
Neal Bawa: Extremely painful. And I think that the, if you call yourself an investor, not a speculator, you have to understand that what has happened in the past is not representative of the future.
Just like the future was never representative of the past either. So while you sort of absorb that pain, understand that the people that are buying today are getting an incredible deal.
Mike Zlotnik: Yeah. Great minds think alike. It’s kind of funny. I had a similar career as you in technology and a lot of similarities and gravity, real estate for many.
Similar reasons. And now that’s exactly the the key point past performance and not indicative future results in the last couple of years, performance has been bad, very difficult for equity. And the future outlook is, drastically different on a forward deployment of capital on the new money.
If you can get deals deep enough, are you seeing these deals yet? So the market is say corrected 20 percent in your view, but it may correct 25, 30%. I, I, what would be the driver for you to take action on this point?
Neal Bawa: We’ve already started taking action because I, one of the fundamental thing, you know, as a, as a data scientist, somebody who uses numbers and remembers thousands of different numbers in their head.
One number that I remember is my track record in predicting bottoms and tops is a flat 0%. So I’ve been wrong 100 percent of the time when predicting the bottom and 100 percent of the time when predicting the top. So I use the Warren Buffett model. Warren Buffett doesn’t wait to predict a top and a bottom.
He often says it in his Berkshire Hathaway presentation that he hasn’t managed to figure out where the top and the bottom is either. He buys when it’s cheap. So anytime you start getting 20 percent off on an asset without its net operating income having decreased, well, that asset is cheap. And so I’ve already started purchasing.
I bought a 30 million asset, which was which was you know, appraised at 36 million just six months ago, seven months ago. And those kinds of assets are at this point you know, unquestionably inexpensive, especially, especially if you can get. You know, loan assumption. So this particular asset via zoomed a loan, it was 79% LTV, it was about five, a little over 5% fixed rate for five years interest.
You know, io, I mean, that’s wonderful because you are getting a 20 to 25% discount off of market value, and why are you getting that discount? Because you have to pay high interest rate. Well, if you go out and assume a loan, then you don’t have to, you know, deal with that. Right. So when you’re doing, using an assumption, you’re getting the good part of the deal, but not the bad part of the deal.
Mike Zlotnik: I concur with that point of view. And the difficulty is to get both the discount and the assemble mortgage. I’ve seen If you get a deal with a simple loan, you don’t get as much of a discount versus a deal that you have to bring your own cash at a much higher cost of money, but you get a bigger discount.
Are you seeing sponsors taking big haircuts or was it? Transaction where the sponsor was just trying to get the principal back. I’m just curious under what circumstances This isn’t a sponsor, it’s
Neal Bawa: a family that, you know, was, has its own money. And they have 30 plus assets and some of their assets need to be refinanced.
So they have to sell some of their good assets to come up with cash to get their other assets refinanced. So there’s a lot of Reasons why people send sell good assets that are highly occupied in this in every market, including this market, people get divorced, people have kids, people, you know, need to raise money for health reasons.
So there’s, there’s plenty of assets in the marketplace. As you said, The assets that are marked down the most are the ones without the assumable loans. The assets that have the assumable loans are still discounted, but not discounted as much as they should be.
Mike Zlotnik: Yeah, I got you, but it’s still a great opportunity if you can get that fixed rate debt, at least you have that security or safety for the duration of the loan.
And what’s your, and it’s a crystal ball question, but this is a fundamental assumption that many of us have to make an underwriting multifamily, any commercial deals. Are the interest rates going to come down or they’re going to stay at this elevated level for a long, long time? It’s basically depending on the point of view of what people are saying, with the government printing press accelerating, it’s just difficult to see how the interest rates will come down unless things really get broken in the system.
Neal Bawa: I, I don’t know why people say that. I think that a fundamental. understanding of economics is necessary and very few people in real estate have a good understanding of economics. They don’t spend enough time looking at this. So let me say this and it’s what I’m going to say is a little technical, right?
The federal funds rate that the fed doesn’t actually change interest rates. They change an internal interbank lending rate called the fed funds rate. And the fed funds rate is currently between five and a quarter and five and a half. And it’s been there for the last seven months. And inflation is currently somewhere around three and a quarter.
Right? Fed wants it at 2 percent or close as close to 2 percent as they can get. It’s at three and a quarter. Please understand that internal Fed documents reveal that you don’t need a Fed funds rate at five and a half when you have inflation at three and a quarter. It’s too high. It’s much too high.
They’re just keeping it there for a certain amount of time so that they can be very, very sure that inflation is coming down. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that the U. S. Economy is weakening. We only produced 175, 000 jobs last month, where we produced 300, 000 jobs earlier in this year. I see manufacturing shrinking.
I see the price of shipping containers from China to the U. S. Reducing. So the economy is in a good place, but there is Zero doubt in my mind that current interest rates or the current Fed funds rate is artificially high. Why? Because the Fed wants to make sure that it doesn’t have a double, you know, sort of increased problem where they, they drop interest rates, then inflation goes up, then they have to raise rates again.
They don’t like that at all. So they’re, they’re being careful and the Fed doesn’t mind putting the U S economy into a recession. It’s not something they want to do. So, so in my mind, this concept of Well, all the recession risks have gone away. No, there’s the possibilities, a significant possibility of a soft landing, but I still think that the way most this mostly works is that the fed ends up putting you into a recession.
This thought process that today’s fed funds rate somehow is the long term fed funds rate has no bearing in reality. It, it, it is only real on YouTube, take talk and Instagram from a economics perspective, there is absolutely no necessity for the fed to keep the rate this high. And if they continue to keep the rate this high, the only possible scenario is that the U S economy goes into a recession and when it does, they’ll cut rates.
So this, this feeling that, Oh, we, we might keep the fed funds rate at five and a quarter to five and a half for the next two years. Is truly, truly absurd. You keep in mind that we kept it at five and a half percent over the last 12 months. Inflation has gone from six to three. It’s been sticky for the last four months, but that is the nature of inflation.
It, it doesn’t come down smoothly, right? It’s going to come down and then be sticky and then come down and then be sticky. That is how it works. And if you look at the last 60 years, the feds raised the rates 14 times, nine times we’ve gone into a recession. And almost every time the the downward curve of inflation has not been smooth.
So it’s it goes down, then sometimes even goes back up a little bit and then goes back down. That’s normal. That’s how it’s happened every single time. So we are currently putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the economy. In fact, There was a Fed meeting day before yesterday. I was sorry, three days ago.
I think it was on Wednesday. And in that meeting, the Fed didn’t change rates. They don’t raise them. They didn’t drop them, but you know, they made an announcement that should really make everyone think about this absurd idea that interest rates will stay this high. Fed does two things to slow the economy down and to reduce inflation.
One is interest rates. The second one is called quantitative tightening or QT, where the Fed basically buys less bonds from the market. So as the bonds renew, the Fed doesn’t buy them again, which reduces liquidity. And they’ve been reducing liquidity by 70 to 90 billion every month for the last year, every single month.
And now they’re slowing that because they’re feeling that. The pressure on the economy, the Fed tries to look six to nine months into the future when making their decisions. They’re not looking at today’s economy because it’s too, there’s no point in looking at the economy. Rates have to be predictive in nature.
Six to nine months down the line, they’re seeing weakness. And that’s why the Fed said on Wednesday, we’re going to reduce quantitative tightening. So the Fed isn’t thinking about raising interest rates more. The Fed isn’t thinking that we might stay where we are. The Fed simply knows it’s a bumpy path.
Mike Zlotnik: Yeah, I appreciate that. It’s a lot of great nuggets in that, in that wisdom. I happen to believe into a similar long term point of view that the interest rates have to come down, that the Fed funds rates should be floating somewhere on a long term basis around where the inflation is. So we are very restricted right now, but let’s talk about long term rates.
Cause most of the mortgages are tight. Okay. To the long term rates and the 10 year treasury has been it has moved up quite a bit and it’s back to about four and a half percent range at the time of recording. And it’s, it’s pretty high. Most of the real estate investors. Open prey, which is not really a strategy, but they, they, they certainly expressed the view that where it needs to be in the three and a half percent range we need to have a normal normalized yield curve where the fed funds rate is lower than, than the long term bond rate.
So what do you think on a long term basis where the interest rates on a 10 year treasury, which will drive where the mortgage rates will be will normalize when we get out of this cycle and It, in the underwriting of many deals, the only thing you can really rely on is the assumption where the 10 year treasury is going to look, is going to be, and that’ll drive the cap rates, it’ll drive a lot of assumptions.
So I’m just curious your, your point of view, you certainly expressed your view that the Fed funds rates has to drop sooner or later. What about long term?
Neal Bawa: I don’t think it drops back to where it was before COVID. So it doesn’t drop back to 2018, 19 or, or 17 simply because we have to finance a significant amount of, you know debt.
And so I think we, you know, it’s five and a half right now. I think it probably drops to three and a half, then drops to three and a quarter. And then it sort of is dependent upon where the economy is. So we get, we get a significant drop from here, but we, but it doesn’t go back to where We were on a pre COVID level.
Now, keep in mind, there are two simultaneous things that are going off that are pulling in different directions. And I don’t know, I don’t think anybody knows which of those two tugging in the tug of war is going to be more successful. The one time on the one side, the world economy is slowing. Now inflation tends to drop when the world economy slows, because inflation is an indicator of demand when demand slows.
Right. Inflation slows. So, you know, if we were, if we didn’t have all this debt in the world and have all this debt, there is no doubt in my mind that long term treasury rates will be going in the downward direction. Please note that they have been declining for decades, right? They’ve been going downwards for decades for lots and lots of different reasons.
And throughout that time, we were printing money. Just so you know, all of that time, 70s, 80s, 90s, when these long term rates were declining, we were printing, printing, printing, and printing. So nothing’s really changed except we’re printing more than we used to. Bottom line is this, because world population growth is tanking, right?
Places like, South Korea are only at 0. 6 percent baby, where, where 2. 1 is the replacement rate. So you got to have 2. 1 babies to replace, you know, it’s just your population stays the same. There are 7. Japan’s at under a one. So with the exception of India, which is also slowing radically, but still reasonable China is in it.
Horrible place. So with world demographics slowing so drastically and the number of kids glowing so drastically, inflation should be going downward. So that’s pulling in a downward direction. But debt. Tends to pull us in an upward direction, except what we’ve seen unusually in the last few, few years, decades is that when you have more debt, your growth slows because of the debt.
Why? Because you can’t make productive investments into your economy. You can’t build infrastructure. You can’t do research R and D all of that goes away because you’re just paying interest. Well, when you do that, the economy slows. Well, when the economy slows, demand slows. When demand slows, inflation actually drops.
So Japan’s a perfect example. They are at 270 percent of debt. We’re at 135 roughly, right? 135, 140. They’re double our level of debt. Japan is a shrinking economy because they have a shrinking population. It’s been shrinking now for decades. You would think that interest rates would be extremely high in Japan because they are 270 percent of GDP.
They’re clearly not a growth economy and they keep borrowing more and more money. But do you know that their interest rates are usually much lower than ours? So there there’s two things pushing down on interest rates, the slowing of the world economy, and the fact that debt itself tends to slow an economy.
And then the third thing is, well, we got to finance this debt. So we have to make it attractive for other people. I don’t know which of those three forces are going to win, but so far, what we’ve seen is the downward force is winning with the exception of the last 18 months, which I have absolutely no doubt in my mind was driven by COVID and Ukraine.
So those were, you know, what we’ve seen in the last 18 months was absolutely driven by. You know, first by COVID, then by Ukraine. So I think we, we cannot use the last two years as a benchmark of what is happening to inflation. There’s still a lot of downward pressure.
Mike Zlotnik: That’s a lot of data and very, very short summary. So you did believe that the interest rates have to come down as overall global inflation is, is going to come down. That’s, that’s the conclusion of the, of the long story, right?
Neal Bawa: Yes. I just don’t know how much, right? So will it come down? Yeah, absolutely. There’s no doubt in my mind that the current rates will put us into a severe recession sooner or later, right?
So the Fed is basically simply saying, we’ll keep them where they are. Until we think that inflation’s, you know, on its way down towards 2 percent and then we’ll drop them. So it is not a question of whether rates will drop or not. It is a question of when, and the fed says. As long as the economy is strong, there’s no pressure on us. We’ll be flexible. We’ll wait.
Mike Zlotnik: Yeah, that’s a great point. I, I too happen to believe they’re going to break consumer because consumer is stepping in the, in the credit cards more and more, and they’re tapping into retirement savings. So sooner or later, the consumer is going to break And when it happens, it’s going to be like, yeah. So I keep in mind,
Neal Bawa: sometimes that doesn’t lead to a recession. So what, what happens in, you know, whenever the fed raises interest rates, basically this cycle happens, interest rates go up, you know, people have more credit card debt. So this isn’t some, anything new we’ve done it 14 times before. This is the 14th time that this usually ends with a recession or it ends with the recession like conditions.
So the other five times when we, the fed didn’t put the economy into a recession. We had recession like conditions. It didn’t quite get all the way down, but growth tanked. And when it tanked obviously demand tanked and when demand tanks, usually inflation comes down. Sometimes you get stagflation, but it’s rare.
Mike Zlotnik: So with all these assumptions, what are you doing on the fresh capital deployment? That’s the big, big next question. You’re raising new funds. You’re deploying capital on new deals. Obviously you, you just mentioned the deal that you did discover at a assumable debt. What else are you doing? I’m just curious.
What are you seeing? Were you seeing the opportunity? Were you deploying cash on a, on a, on a new capital raise basis?
Neal Bawa: I am doing what is known as land squatting. One of my favorite strategies right now is land squatting. Land squatting is not the same as land banking with land banking. You buy a cheap land, you sit on it for two years, three years, four years, five years until it goes up in value.
And then you sell it. That’s land banking. Land squatting is a very unique strategy. It only works when interest rates are extremely high. So it works for a short window and then just falls apart. In a land squatting strategy, when interest rates are at four to five percent, in this case, five and a half percent is the fed funds rate developers stop building.
When developers stop building, you get a, you know, land buyers, basically their, their product, which is land, becomes illiquid. So right now I’m making hundreds of offers on high quality pieces of land all over the United States, the, the at about 30 percent off of listed listed price value. And my biggest catch is I have 21 months to close.
This is called land squatting because I’m not actually purchasing the land. I’m paying a small 2 percent deposit, which goes hard after six months. And then after that, I have another, beyond that point, I have another 15 months to close after the first six months. So I have 21 months to get through entitlements, get the land, you know, zoned and permitted, and do all of those kinds of things, and then decide whether I want to build something a year and a half from now.
Or a year from now, or simply sell that as entitled land a year from now, both there definitely would be a higher price for entitled land in a 12 to 18 months because rates will come down to a more reasonable level. And so I can just sell it as entitled land. And if I don’t. I will then go ahead and build and I’ll have an advantage because I would have paid very little for that land.
So land is cheap. Land squatting is a fantastic strategy right now.
Mike Zlotnik: You’re buying an option on the land effectively. Optional control.
Neal Bawa: Yes, a 21 month option.
Mike Zlotnik: Yeah, that’s, that’s a pretty powerful idea and, and that strategy has been used by some of the big builders too. They don’t want to own land, they want to own an option.
So that’s a pretty, pretty clever strategy that certainly works. It certainly is very powerful. Okay. That’s a wonderful strategy. What else? Are you doing anything else? So land squatting makes a lot of sense in this environment. By the way, is it residential development land or is it some kind of multifamily?
Neal Bawa: So yes and no. So I’m no longer doing multifamily development with this land squatting strategy. I’m doing townhomes because I believe that We are getting to the point where middle class, not lower class, but, but middle class economic class Americans are now getting not able to afford a home after COVID remember when COVID hit 45 percent of all the homes in the market were affordable for a median home income on the day that COVID hit.
Today that number is 16. Right? So only 16 percent of Americans can afford the listing that is in the market right now. Only 16. 1 out of 6, 1 out of 7. Which means that a lot of people want to live in homes, but they won’t be able to buy them. If they won’t, they won’t be able to buy them, what’s the next best thing?
Townhomes. So, my strategy is to build townhomes, not apartments. I’m sure you can build apartments as well, there’s nothing wrong with that strategy.
Mike Zlotnik: When you say townhomes, you typically mean a single family townhome, or you’re talking about possibly a possibility of building a duplex, triplex, quad, something up to four doors.
Neal Bawa: Those are not townhomes. A townhome basically is, it looks like, imagine a single family home. But now stick them together
Mike Zlotnik: and most of New York City. So townhomes are everywhere.
Neal Bawa: Yeah, yeah. So basically take a single family, start a single family home, 1300 square feet and then just join the walls together and make sure that there’s only one car garage instead of two and make the backyard smaller and you’ve got a townhome.
Mike Zlotnik: Okay that’s pretty powerful. I do believe that there is a substantial on the supply of residential units. That’s been a well known fact. In a townhome is fits in that, but I guess you’re utilizing land very efficiently when you’re building a townhome because it’s a, it’s a much, much better use of land, at least or buildable food.
You’re using a lot less land. What else? We still have five minutes left. I just want to make sure we get a chance to share any great ideas. And then how would folks reach out to you at the grow capitals?
Neal Bawa: Sure. Well, first I want to talk with people about mindset. Okay. In 2008, I was buying a single family home every month and I was desperate.
I wanted to buy as many as I could. I was going around begging and borrowing and getting cash from everybody buying him because my data science was showing it was the best time to buy real estate in 100 years. But almost everybody around me thought that I was a complete idiot. They thought that, you know, I couldn’t possibly be more wrong today on the multifamily side.
You have an opportunity to be buying multifamily at 20 plus percent off, okay? By the time you go out and buy a property now, it’s going to be four or five months down the line. So it’ll definitely be more than 20%. I think this is the equivalent of that 2008 opportunity for multifamily. And I think that you have to find out how to convince your investors of that.
That’s the bottom line, right? It may not be as great as 2008, cause that was a crash bottom line. There was a crash. There was a huge recession. There were millions of homes in the market. The risk was much higher today. There’s no crash. Multifamily is not in any level of distress. There’s a lot of people that think multifamily is distressed.
This is a. Absolutely atrocious and stupid idea. Current delinquency rates, both 30 day and 60 days for multifamily are one sixth of those for single family homes and one twelfth of those for credit cards. That is not a definition of distress. You know, what’s distressed 2, 500 multifamily properties that when they sell, we’ll lose all of their investors money.
That is not a definition of distress for a market. That’s 4 trillion in size. So 2500 properties will have investors that will lose some or all of their money. How can that be considered distress when there’s a, the total number of apartment units in the United States is 20 million. That’s over 100, 000 properties of 200 units each.
And there’s 2500 properties that will be sold losing money for people. That is not a definition of distress by any financial means. And so people keep thinking about these 2500 properties and they think that this is going to lead to some kind of run or some kind of distress in the marketplace. It’s a truly absurd idea, but it’s also extremely popular on Instagram or TikTok. Therefore, it must be right.
Mike Zlotnik: I appreciate that change in the mindset. I happen to agree that now is the time to be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. So if you’re looking for great opportunities, back to the Warren Buffett. Now maybe the opportunity to pick up some great real estate at discounted prices. Even though the discount is not large and, and, and widespread, but for the deals where there is a distressed owner with the, with the capital stack that can’t sustain the, the property, that’s where the opportunities are. So, what are you, what are you doing today? And, and how would folks get a hold of you just to
Neal Bawa: I think the best thing today is to really stay connected with the data, right?
And that’s how you can use the data. You can use it with, with your own limited partners. You know, these are the two companies that I run mission 10 K, which is building 10, 000 rental townhomes and grow capitals, which basically buys multifamily properties, right? So those are the two companies, but I think the one that you’re interested in is neither one of these two it’s multifamily.
com. So we have a website called multifamily. com and we do about 12, very fun and interesting webinars on the on, on the multifamily you platform, about 25, 000 people attend those go there, check those out. Like the data that I was mentioning today, about 16 percent of the homes being affordable for Americans.
All of that data is on that website. We do not have a subscription. We do not have an upsell. We don’t have an educational program. It’s just a Wikipedia of real estate data. That’s the best way to interact with us. So go to multifamilyu.com and connect with us. All of those 25, 000 people, a thousand are investors with us. The remaining, they’re just there for the data. They’re just there to take it and use it. Be one of those people.
Mike Zlotnik: multifamilyu.com.
Neal Bawa: That’s right.
Mike Zlotnik: Thank you Neal for sharing. Thank you for coming on a podcast. I appreciate your wisdom and your time.
Neal Bawa: Thanks so much. Bye bye.
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